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Energy Commission of Nigeria
All Energy Electricity Security Flows Map Story Costs Air Share
Domestic transport behaviour ? 1 2 3 4
Shift to low carbon emission transport technology ? 1 2 3 4
Fuel switch for Internal Combustion Engine ? 1 2 3 4
Domestic freight ? 1 2 3 4
Cooling Demand ? 1 2 3 4
Efficiency of Cooling System ? 1 2 3 4
Residential Lighting, Appliances & Cooking ? 1 2 3 4
Technology Pathway (Cooking) ? 1 2 3 4
Growth in industry with GDP ? 1 2 3 4
Energy intensity of industry ? 1 2 3 4
Service Sector Demand for Cooling ? 1 2 3 4
Efficiency of Cooling System ? 1 2 3 4
Service Sector lighting, appliances & Cooking ? 1 2 3 4
Technology Pathway (Cooking) ? 1 2 3 4
Natural gas power stations ? 1 2 3 4
Biomass power ? 1 2 3 4
Coal power stations ? 1 2 3 4
Nuclear power stations ? 1 2 3 4
Wind ? 1 2 3 4
Hydroelectric power stations ? 1 2 3 4
Small Hydroelectric power stations ? 1 2 3 4
Grid Connected Solar PV ? 1 2 3 4
Concentrated Solar Power ? 1 2 3 4
Stand Alone Solar Photo Voltaic ? 1 2 3 4
Electricity imports ? 1 2 3 4
Land dedicated to bioenergy ? 1 2 3 4
Livestock and their management ? 1 2 3 4
Volume of waste and recycling ? 1 2 3 4
Type of fuels from biomass ? 1 2 3 4
Bioenergy imports ? 1 2 3 4
Indigenous fossil-fuel: Coal ? 1 2 3
Indigenous fossil-fuel: Oil ? 1 2 3
Indigenous fossil-fuel production: Gas ? 1 2 3


Question marks take you to one page descriptions of each choice
The least effort possible on this choice.
Viewed as ambitious, but reasonable by most experts.
Viewed as unlikely without significant change from the current system and/or significant technological breakthroughs
The upper end of what is thought to be physically plausible by the most optimistic observer.
We would like your help to develop this tool. Please click here to find out more about our methodology and suggest improvements. Before viewing the cost implications of your choices, please note that:
  1. The Calculator expresses pathway costs as 'average naira per person per year'. This is not the same as your energy bill. It is the cost of everything the Nigeria buys that makes, converts, saves or uses energy: from kettles and insulation foam to trains and power stations. You can choose to see the results in different units when using the excel version of the Calculator.
  2. The Calculator does not choose any options automatically, regardless of their cost.
  3. The Calculator uses forecasts from credible sources of how technology and fuel costs might rise or fall over time. You vary these forecasts using the cost sensitivity implication from the menu on the top left. The full set of data points is available on the wiki.
  4. The cost of not tackling climate change is not included in the Calculator. The Stern review estimated that failing to tackle climate change could reduce global GDP by up to 20%. This is the equivalent of up to £6,500 per person per year on average, on top of the cost of the energy system.
  5. Some other important effects have been excluded from the Calculator. The costs of travelling less or with different modes of transport, having colder homes or fewer goods, and changing the appearance of our houses or landscape are not included. Nor are profits, taxes, subsidies or economies of scale driven by pathway choices. The Calculator includes only the physical costs of constructing, operating and fuelling equipment.
  6. Costs are just one feature for comparing 2050 pathways. The Calculator provides information on other impacts, as well as some illustrative pathways to compare your choices with.

The impact of your pathway on air quality

The damage to human health arising from air pollution from this pathway, principally particulate matter, could be around in 2050 compared to 2010. Given the scope for adverse implications for air quality, if Nigeria were to adopt this pathway the Government would develop a policy framweork that supported the innovation required to be at the bottom end of the range

How to interpret these results:

  • Air pollution health impact index — this index measures the effect on human health from fine particulate matter and other air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides. For example, these pollutants have been linked to premature death caused by heart and lung disease. 2010 is the baseline year (100). A number lower than 100 indicates a reduction in average air pollution and associated health impacts, whilst a higher number indicates an increase. This index reflects changes in the average concentration of air pollutants across Nigeria. It does not provide information on the number or severity of pollution hotspots.
  • High end of hatched range — worst case scenario for air pollution whereby there is no further deployment or innovation in pollution abatement technology between now and 2050 beyond planned measures.
  • Low end of hatched range — best case scenario whereby innovation radically improves pollution abatement technology between now and 2050 and it is fully deployed.

We would welcome your feedback on the methodology used to calculate the impact of your pathway on air quality. You can also download the excel version of the 2050 pathways calcualtor to see the different types of air pollution and the relative importance of different sources.

Balancing electricity supply and demand

GW of conventional gas electricity generation plant has been assumed to have been built by 2050, to cover the gap between average electricity demand and the amount of low carbon generation selected in this pathway.

This tool does not model the hourly, daily or even seasonal operation of the electricity grid. It presents annual averages. Therefore it does not correctly represent the peaks and troughs of electricity demand.

To go some way to addressing this flaw, the tool applies a simulated stress test to your pathway of five cold, almost windless, days. This is described in more detail here. In this case, the stress test implies that GW of additional peaking plant may be required for supply to meet demand over that period.

You can influence the amount of peaking plant by changing your choice level of 'storage, demand shifting & interconnection' below right,or by reducing the amount of intermittent renewable generation, or by reducing the demand for electricity

Dependence on imported energy

The calculator assumes that any available biomass is preferred over fossil fuels and that domestically produced fuels are preferred over imports.It assumes that fossil fuels are imported to cover any shortfall.


Diversity of energy sources

There may be a benefit from maintaining a diversity of energy sources:

Proportion of energy supply20102050